Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Mid-Week Match-up Preview: January 17-19

Another set of ACC games, another set of insane outcomes. I saw neither of the 30+ blowouts coming nor did I think that Virginia Tech would continue its downward spiral at Boston College. Full credit to the Eagles though - that set of nine freshman appear to be maturing just in time for league play. They still aren't a good team, but perhaps they are better than I was giving them credit for early in the year - they are now 3-0 against the spread in conference.

After a 3-1-1 weekend (Duke -7 pushed against Clemson) my picks now sit at 10-6-1 against the spread. Short previews this week due to time constraints.

Maryland @ Florida State
The only thing I know is that Florida State will not win this game by 33 points. They should have a huge advantage inside against Maryland as Alex Len has never seen a frontcourt with this kind of size, strength and athleticism. If they can keep Stoglin in check it should be a relatively easy win for the 'Noles. Should being the operative word. Pomeroy gives the home team a 92% chance to win and likes them by 16.

My Prediction: I'm considerably less optimistic, but I still think FSU wins this game. Seminoles 68, Maryland 62

Clemson @ Miami
Miami will be the favorites for the first time in league play after starting the year on the road at Virginia and at North Carolina. People seem to have already written off the Hurricanes due to an 0-2 start, but their schedule will get easier and Reggie Johnson should continue to get back in game shape. This is still potentially a dangerous team over the next few weeks. Clemson looks like a classic 'good at home, terrible on the road' team right now. Pomeroy gives Miami a 70% chance to win and likes them by six.

My Prediction: Miami's guards have a good night. Hurricanes 74, Clemson 61

Wake Forest @ Duke
Wake played like a girls high school team on Saturday. They will be better at Cameron, but still get railroaded by the Devils. Pomeroy gives Duke a 97% chance of winning and likes them by 26.

My Prediction: Duke shows mercy and slows it down at about the 15-minute mark of the 2nd half. Devils 75, Wake 60.

Boston College @ NC State
A game the Pack has to win, especially after the Georgia Tech loss. Boston College has proved a difficult out so far though. Pomeroy gives the Pack a 95% chance and likes them by 19.

My Prediction: Pack plays poorly but still wins. NC State 75, Boston College 68 

Virginia @ Georgia Tech
Road games in the ACC are not easy. Especially when you play a grind it out style that almost assures the game will be close at the end. Pomeroy gives Virginia a 70% chance of winning but only likes them by four.

My Prediction: Virginia is gonna lose one of these road games to bad ACC teams. It's inevitable. Won't be this one though. They'll come close here but pull it out. Virginia 60, Jackets 57

North Carolina @ Virginia Tech
North Carolina is going to get everyone's best shot, especially on the road. This game will show us whether they took the lessons of the weekend to heart. If they run Virginia Tech out of the building we can maybe keep talking about them as a Final Four team. But if they struggle and repeat the same issues once again, maybe we have to accept that this Carolina team just isn't that great. Pomeroy has them as 64% favorites and likes them by four on the road.

My Prediction: Carolina focuses and wins easily. UNC 78, Tech 65

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