Friday, February 10, 2012

Weekend Match-up Preview: February 10-11

A really good Saturday in the ACC as six of the top seven teams face off and the other (NC State) has a bye week. ESPNU somehow is carrying Boston College at Virginia Tech on Sunday, which has to be due to some contractual obligation to feature all 12 teams during its Sunday night showcase.

Finished 3-2 over the midweek games, now 34-20-2 overall against the spread. Just as an FYI, I've moved my own predictions up above the breakdowns.

Virginia at North Carolina
Pomeroy: UNC by six, 73% chance of winning
My Prediction: UNC 68, Virginia 58
The fastest team in the league against the slowest. Have no doubt, Virginia will pull the Heels into a game that's played in the 60s in terms of pace (and probably score). It will be very interesting to see if Mike Scott can continue his slow-pace Superman routine against the Heels, who will be able to throw both Henson and Zeller at him all day. I have trouble seeing a world where an angry, vengeful UNC squad loses to Virginia at home.

Maryland at Duke
Pomeroy: Duke by 20, 93% chance of winning
My Prediction: Duke 80, Maryland 68
Duke is fortunate to come back home after the win over UNC, because you always have to worry about a let-down game after such a big win. Stoglin will score some points, and Alex Len will do some awkward stuff and some stuff that makes you go 'man he'll be good one day'. But ultimately, the Blue Devils are not losing three straight conference home games.

Miami at Florida State
Pomeroy: FSU by seven, 74% chance of winning
My Prediction: Miami 65, Florida State 63
Miami is the hottest team in the league right now, on a three game winning streak including a road win at Cameron. Reggie Johnson looks healthy, Shane Larkin is emerging as the second-best freshman in the league this year. It's actually somewhat amazing that the Hurricanes are only a middle of the pack team - the problem has been sharp regression from both of its two 'star' guards. Grant has become a liability over the past few weeks and Scott has been productive but has not been the All-ACC type of player we thought he'd be coming into this year. So, all of that said, I'm really interested to see how this Hurricanes team plays in Tallahassee this weekend - I like their chances to hand FSU its second-straight loss.

Clemson at Wake Forest
Pomeroy: Clemson by four, 66% chance of winning
My Prediction: Clemson 65, Wake 55
Clemson on the road is always a shaky proposition. I want to say they are 1-58 against the spread on the road this season, but I might be exaggerating. And yes, the only way to make this game interesting is to bet on it. This includes Clemson and Wake fans.

Boston College at Virginia Tech
Pomeroy: Virginia Tech by 15, 92% chance of winning
My Prediction: VT 59, BC 53
Cassell Coliseum, the perfect arena... for revenge. Tech somehow lost to BC earlier in the year. The less that we say about this game, the better.

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