Friday, February 3, 2012

Weekend Match-up Preview: February 3-4

4-2 over the midweek games thanks to lucky break at the end of the GT game. Now 26-16-2 on the year.

UNC at Maryland 
Pomeroy: UNC by 13, 86% chance of winning
Always a potential trap game - it will be interesting to see how the Heels do against a super-scorer like Stoglin. This is another case of a team without the front-court depth to really challenge UNC though - it will take a 30+ point night out of Stoglin to win this thing

My Prediction: UNC 90, Maryland 75

Virginia at Florida State
Pomeroy: FSU by 4, 67% chance of winning
Seems like its been awhile since we've had a match-up between two of the top four in the league, so this is a welcome change. I only know this - it won't be an aesthetically pleasing game. Two of the the top 10 defensive teams in the nation playing at Virginia's pace the whole game. The match-up favors Florida State slightly simply because they prefer to go inside and that is the singular weakness (if you can call it a weakness) of the Virginia defense. If the Cavs can force a lot of perimeter shots, as they did against NC State, they have a chance of pulling off the mild upset.

My Prediction: Florida State 60, UVA 59

Wake Forest at NC State
Pomeroy: Pack by 16, 91% chance of winning
Not much to say here. Pack probably won't win by 30+ again. They need to take care of business on Saturday and next week in Atlanta then things will get interesting.

My Prediction. NC State 81, Wake 70

Clemson at Virginia Tech
Pomeroy: VT by 6, 72% chance of winning
ACC mediocrity at its best. When the ACC was good, way back when (two years ago), these would have been two of the worst teams in the league. Now they are comfortably in the 7-9 area - I almost called this the upper bottom of the league but decided that was bad terminology.

My Prediction: VT 64, Clemson 60

Georgia Tech at Boston College
Pomeroy: GT by 11, 87% chance of winning
Georgia Tech is gonna win some games down the stretch because their schedule gets a lot easier, not because they will actually improve. Remember this when GT goes 3-3 in its next six games.

My Prediction: GT 59, BC 52

Miami at Duke
Pomeroy: Duke by 12, 85% chance of winning
This would be a much more intriguing game if it were taking place in Durham, but this Miami team absolutely has the talent to beat Duke. I don't know that they'll ever manage to put it all together and become a good team, but in one game anything can happen. Kadji and Johnson can give the Devils problems in the front court, while Larkin could seriously menace Austin Rivers' offensive game. That's really the match-up I'm most interested in - Larkin vs Rivers. In a dream world we'd see these two grow up over four years against each other but in reality this is probably the only time we'll see this match-up.

My Prediction: Duke 85, Miami 70

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