I sorted them by RPI and tried to highlight the positives and negatives on their resume (my cut-off are admittedly arbitrary). I have no idea what the committee actually looks at, and I'm not sure this really illuminates anything we didn't already know, but it looks pretty at least.
There are maybe six spots for the 14 teams I have listed here. If Xavier wins that knocks them off the board without eating an at-large spot.
At this point State qualifies in ever metric on the board except for 1-50 record. If you simply stretch it to 1-55 record, the Pack moves to 4-8. Otherwise it is arguably the top BCS team on the board, which I think is important.
I'm of the mindset that the first four is going to end up being two BCS conference teams against two mid-majors. If you are picking two BCS schools off this list, I think you are taking Cal and NC State and then taking Marshall & Iona as the competition. Some of those four teams might actually slot in before the Dayton contingent, so I'll add Drexel and South Florida as the next alternates.