Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Line Judging: Week 2

This is designed to be a weekly column discussing the various ACC lines for the week. That's the design, at least. This week is especially tricky because its almost all out of conference games and because I pay so much attention to the ACC, I tend to know very little about teams outside the ACC. That's my go-to excuse for when I got 2-5 this week at least.

Note: VT, FSU, GT & BC all play FCS opponents this week so there are no lines on those games (or at least not lines worth discussing).

Penn State (+10) at Virginia
This line feels like an overreaction to PSU's home loss to a good Ohio team under some very weird and pressure-packed circumstances. Going on the road might actually help PSU a little bit. I also tend to think UVA regresses slightly this year - lets just say I'm not buying any stock in Micheal Rocco despite a nice opening game from him.
My Pick: Penn State

NC State (-4) at UConn
If there's no way you would bet on either side of a line - its probably a good indication that the line is set correctly. And I wouldn't go anywhere near this line.

I do believe that there has been a sharp overreaction to NC State losing a game in which it was an underdog when its best defensive and best offensive players had perhaps their worst games as collegiate athletes. That said, I'm not really sure how good UConn is and TOB's road record against BCS foes is atrocious. State should be favored, and they should win, I wouldn't bet on it.
My Pick: Ugh, NCSU... I guess

Ball State (+27.5) at Clemson
Just depends on how much Clemson wants to win by, honestly. This line bores me because its really just guessing how quickly Dabo turns on the breaks and whether or not Ball State can score a few garbage TDs in the 4th. I'd take Ball State, probably, and assume a merciful Dabo this Saturday after a big win over Auburn.
My Pick: Ball State

North Carolina (-8) at Wake Forest
I would be all over the Wake Forest end of this line, calling it an overreacting to UNC trouncing a far inferior opponent, but then Wake had to go and make things complicated by barely beating Liberty. We all love Grobe because we are contractually obligated as members of the ACC media to love him, but I'm not convinced that he has WF moving in the right direction lately.
My Pick: UNC

Maryland (+10.5) at Temple
Maryland has lost approximately an entire class worth of guys to transfers since Edsall took over, has another half a class of guys injured and just beat William & Mary - a school I was shocked to hear had a football team of any kind - by a score of 7-6. Until further notice, they can't make these lines high enough.
My Pick: Temple

Miami (+7) at Kansas State
I know so little about Kansas State that I have no idea what to do with this line. Are they good? Because Miami is not good - they played an immensely entertaining game last Saturday with Boston College. But BC scored a ton of points on them and I don't exactly remember the Eagles having a dynamic offense last season. This looks like the kind of team that has to outscore people, and I have no faith they'll be able to outscore a random B12 team on the road.
My Pick: Kansas State

Duke (+14) at Stanford
I desperately want Duke to be good at football because as you might know, I'm secretly a Duke fan. Also I really like their coaching staff and would prefer one of the Triangle teams not be constantly one of the worst BCS teams in the nation. So I was delighted that they won big on Saturday. But its still Duke, and I'm not buying one great game as a sign that this team will hang with Stanford 2,000 miles from home.
My Pick: Stanford

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