Thursday, January 9, 2014

Exploring the Duke Hangover Effect

UPDATE: After heavy discussions with esteemed Shane Ryan and some helpful gambling history knowledge from Josh Goodson, we decided to look at spread vs actual performance and calculate the difference. Initially we went back to 2008, but later decided to go all the way back to 2003 just to get a full decade worth of results in.

Here's the results:

Team Next Game Spread Results Difference
2003 FSU  +7 at UNC Lost by 1 6
2003 Maryland  -3 at UNC Won by 15 12
2003 NC State  -5 vs UNC Won by 9 4
2003 Wake  +7 at Maryland Lost by 23 -16
2004 GT  -8 vs FSU Won by 3 -5
2004 NC State  -6 at Clemson Lost by 5 -11
2004 Wake  +4 at GT Won by 4 8
2005 Maryland  -4 vs GT Won by 8 4
2005 Maryland #2  +2 vs NC State Lost by 19 -17
2005 VT  +1 vs Miami Won by 13 14
2005 Wake  -10 at VT Won by 20 10
2006 FSU  +3 at Miami Won by 3 6
2007 FSU  +4 at Clemson Lost by 13 -9
2007 GT  - 7 vs Florida State Won by 8 1
2007 Maryland  -3 at NC State Won by 15 12
2007 Maryland #2  -12 vs NC State Won by 20 8
2007 UNC  -23 vs Wake Won by 37 14
2007 Virginia  -12 vs Miami Won by 11 -1
2007 VT  -7 vs UNCG Won by 23 0
2008 Miami  -2 vs Maryland Won by 15 13
2008 Wake  +15 at UNC Lost by 16 -1
2009 BC  +6 at Miami Lost by 11 -5
2009 Clemson  -9 vs FSU Lost by 4 -13
2009 UNC  -8 at Miami Won by 4 -4
2009 Wake  -7 at GT Lost by 2 -9
2010 GT  +2 at Virginia Lost by 7 -5
2010 Maryland  -5 at Virginia Won by 6 1
2010 NC State  +9 at Maryland Lost by 24 -13
2011 FSU  -7  vs NC State Won by 13 6
2011 VT  -9 vs BC Lost by 15 -24
2012 FSU  -8 at Wake Won by 23 15
2012 Miami  -6 vs VT Won by 16 10
2013 Maryland Pick at BC Lost by 11 -11
2013 Miami  -9 vs Florida State Won by 24 15
2013 NC State  +2.5 at Maryland Lost by 1 1.5
2013 Virginia  -4 at BC Lost by 1 -5
2014 Notre Dame  -7.5 vs NC State Lost by 7 -14.5
-0.081081081

So, there's less than a tenth of a point of under-performance on average by a team playing its next opponent after beating Duke.

2 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks to my last Duke Hangover I'm not allowed in any Triangle-area Pantana Bob's

    ReplyDelete